The hottest viscose staple fiber is bad, and the w

2022-08-14
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Viscose staple fiber: bad news occurs frequently, and weakness is difficult to change

the market price of viscose staple fiber has risen weakly since reaching a high of 16400 yuan to 16800 yuan/ton in mid and early May. Since May 11, the price of cotton futures at home and abroad has plummeted, and the price of bulk products at home and abroad has continued to fall. Subsequently, the negotiation of viscose staple fiber medium and low-end products has loosened, falling by 100 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton per week, and the high-end price remains firm. Downstream cotton mills are mostly approaching the procurement cycle, but they continue to wait and see because they are expected to be bearish. Then, can the rigid demand for centralized compensation, which is expected by everyone, curb the decline in prices

in terms of cost, from March to April in the early stage, the price of imported pulp ordered by the viscose factory is around 1050 US dollars/ton, the price of cotton pulp is 8600 ~8700 yuan/ton, and the factory price of domestic dissolved pulp is 8300 ~8500 yuan/ton. Taking into account the auxiliary materials that have increased significantly recently, most of the raw materials of viscose manufacturers have been in stock for one month, that is, the actual cost of viscose manufacturers from the end of May to June is 16000 yuan to 16500 yuan/ton. At present, most domestic viscose manufacturers are in a state of slight loss. In the later period when some raw materials are well stocked, with the price of viscose falling, the loss side has an obvious trend of increasing. Cotton pulp manufacturers' early inventory was basically empty, many suppliers released their supply in advance in the second quarter, and the price of imported dissolved pulp fell by a limited amount in the later period. Domestic dissolved pulp and traders holding the source of imported dissolved pulp are more likely to lead the decline in the late pressure

from the situation of viscose staple fiber itself, due to the bearish trend in the later stage, the overall procurement remained in a reduced and wait-and-see state, and the actual demand was suppressed. The inventory of domestic viscose manufacturers is still within the controllable range, and facing the downstream wait-and-see for more than half a month. The marking is drawn on the prepared samples by printing or manually (the addition of marking has no impact on the samples). After the wish, the rising pressure of the inventory of viscose manufacturers in the later stage increases. After, domestic viscose manufacturers have maintained a high industrial operating rate of more than 80%, and there is much room for adjustment in the later stage. Especially for some mid-range manufacturers with high inventory pressure, it is highly possible to adjust the load in the later stage under the impact of new capacity, quality and price of domestic new factories

from the perspective of the general environment, the current macro environment is poor, the European debt crisis has not been resolved, the global economy is in danger of falling into a double recession, and the bad environment is comparable to the 2008 financial crisis. The cumulative export transactions of textile and clothing in the Canton Fair decreased by 4.8% month on month and 2.3% year on year respectively. The price of bulk products fell in response, and the chemical fiber raw materials also fell across the board. The overall environmental situation was weak, adding to the market haze

since the news of the issuance of an additional 1.1 million tons of import quotas in the cotton market was issued, the cotton prices of domestic and foreign futures have fallen sharply. The huge price difference between the spot price of cotton at home and abroad has depressed the domestic cotton price. Viscose staple fiber was not spared, adding to the bad news

on the whole, the negative factors of viscose staple fiber dominate this round. It is expected that the industry inventory will reach a high point in mid and late June, and the market price may look for the low in the early stage, ranging from 15000 yuan to 15500 yuan/ton. However, insiders need not panic too much. In the medium and long term, the annual purchase and storage price of cotton is still the key to price support in the second half of the year. The deviation of viscose price from 204 is mainly used in some manufacturing, metallurgy and building materials industries, and the central price of 00 yuan/ton will not be too far

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