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Systemic risk release and recovery drive oil prices up

Content abstract:

crude oil prices rebounded at the end of June. Multi air forces tend to balance

crude oil inventories in the United States are still high, and refined oil inventories have also been repeated, but the global crude oil supply has not increased significantly. Seasonal peak oil consumption season is coming, and consumption is expected to rebound in the short term

domestic fuel oil market demand is weak, mainly to digest inventory, and the degree of price guidance of supply and demand is not high

the futures price is upside down, and the futures inventory is down, but it is still at a historical high. The sluggish market demand has led to the low attention of funds in the futures market, and the futures trend will passively follow the crude oil to fluctuate in a narrow range.

Part I systematic risk release, crude oil bottoming rebound

Market Review in January and June - crude oil bottoming rebound

at the end of May 2010, the Greek debt crisis that caused a sensation around the world broke out, and the market is quite worried about whether the economy bottomed again. The oil price fell to around $68, which was strongly supported. Since June, the sharply falling crude oil price has released systemic risks, and the crude oil price has rebounded slightly all the way driven by continuous positive data. However, by the end of last week, U.S. crude oil inventories had increased for two consecutive weeks. The recent economic data released by the United States were mixed, and China's newly launched exchange rate reform policy was not yet clear. The market had unstable confidence in the global economic recovery, and it was also worried that the future crude oil demand would be weaker than expected. Therefore, oil prices in Europe and the United States broke away from the upward track at the end of the month and fluctuated between dollars/barrel

the crude oil bottomed out in shock this month. After the release of systemic risks, the market showed a short-term equilibrium state. Affected by multiple factors, crude oil prices fluctuated

Figure 1: K-line chart of main crude oil contract day

figure is the K-line trend chart of main crude oil contract day. (image source: Bloomberg, interim Research Institute)

Second, the crisis has receded, and the demand for crude oil has been put on the desk again

it is achieved through painting. 1. The operating rate of American refineries continues to improve

in July, the United States, which accounts for about 25% of global crude oil demand, is about to usher in the peak of summer oil consumption. Although crude oil inventories are still increasing, recently the operating rate of American refineries has continued to improve, rising sharply from 80% to 89%, which is the highest level since May 2008, when the first research on the future is the introduction of the innovative plasticization concept energizer. Gasoline inventories also showed signs of continued decline. The U.S. Meteorological Administration recently issued a warning that the United States may face a more active hurricane season this summer than ever before, and the probability of being hit by a strong hurricane is higher than in previous years. After entering the summer, the crude oil market has been in the seasonal peak season, which will strengthen the market's expectations for the improvement of supply and demand

Figure 2: operating rate of American refinery

the figure shows the trend of operating rate of American refinery. (image source: Bloomberg, interim Research Institute)

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