The hottest T700 has passed the aerospace engine c

T700 pass 5. Inspect the experimental results and make experimental records. The performance increment of military carbon fiber certified by aerospace engine

Guangwei composite (300699)

Event

on July 8, the company announced that the T700 grade carbon fiber products developed by the company have passed the application verification of aerospace rocket engines, breaking the long-term monopoly of foreign high-performance carbon fibers

t700 has passed the certification of aerospace engines and achieved the domestic substitution of dry jet wet spinning. On August 8, the company announced that the T700 grade carbon fiber products developed and produced by the company have been successfully verified on the shell of a certain model of solid rocket motor in China, marking that China has broken through the technical bottleneck of domestic dry jet wet spinning industrial carbon fiber in key weapon models and other aerospace applications, It breaks the long-term monopoly of foreign high-performance carbon fibers on the Chinese market. T700 grade carbon fiber is the company's independent research and development of carbon fiber products, marking that the company gradually began to get rid of following production and embark on the road of independent research and development. The successful verification of aerospace engine shell materials has realized the domestic substitution of dry jet wet spinning carbon fiber, which means that the development and mass production of a new key model rocket engine in the aerospace field in the future will directly stimulate the huge demand for the company's T700 Carbon fiber products, and the T700 products are expected to become a new increment of the company's military performance in the future

t800 may become the main support of military products in the future

t800 carbon fiber products have achieved a leap from scientific research to engineering manufacturing. On June 13, the State Administration of science, technology and industry for National Defense announced that recently, T800 carbon fiber composites in China have achieved their first engineering application, filling a gap in the domestic aviation field. The first application of T800 composite materials in domestic helicopter models means that China's T800 carbon fiber has gone from scientific research to engineering manufacturing. The company is a participant in t800h related projects and a research and development unit of carbon fiber materials. At present, relevant projects are still in the verification stage

this time, the company's t800h carbon fiber products began to be applied in small batches on some helicopter models, indicating that the performance of this product has stabilized. Referring to the use of carbon fiber in U.S. military aircraft, among all kinds of military aircraft, military helicopters use the highest proportion of carbon fiber materials, accounting for about 40% of the total weight. At present, China's land aviation force is still in the process of continuous construction, and the expansion of the land aviation brigade has brought huge new space for helicopters; At the same time, China's new 10 ton general-purpose helicopter is about to be finalized, and it may become the military helicopter model with the largest number of equipment in the three services after being installed. The new general-purpose helicopter may bring the demand for military carbon fiber in the field of aviation equipment, so we need to pay special attention to three aspects: how to solve the excessive noise in the high and low temperature test box: check whether the shock absorption spring is deformed, the first round of high-speed growth, the subsequent use of carbon fiber in fighter aircraft, large military aircraft and other equipment will also continue to rise, and T800 grade carbon fiber products may become the main support for the company's military product performance after T300 in the future

as the leader of the military carbon fiber industry, the importance of domestic substitution has become increasingly prominent

due to the fact that Japanese and European and American enterprises almost monopolize the global market and implement strict export management on China, China's carbon fiber market once appeared in short supply. Domestic military carbon fibers could not meet the needs of new weapons and equipment, seriously delaying the progress of equipment upgrading. The company began to develop carbon fiber in 2002 and quickly broke through the key technology of T300 carbon fiber, breaking the foreign monopoly. At present, the company's military products involve many fields such as aerospace, electronic communications, weapons and equipment, and the product research and development has completed an important transformation from follow-up research and development to independent innovation. The existing T300 series products have achieved long-term stable supply, and the new products have also met the conditions for mass production and have been verified and used on new weapons and equipment. With the continuous improvement of the upgrading speed of China's weapons equipment, imported imitation will gradually be unable to meet the material supporting needs of the new generation of weapons and equipment. As a domestic substitute for high-end materials with independent research and development production capacity, the company will become increasingly important in the construction of weapons and equipment in the future

the company is a major supplier of carbon fiber materials in the military aerospace field. T300 carbon fiber products have been stably supplied to the military for nearly a decade, and are widely used in more than 20 military models such as the third-generation fighter in active service in China. In 2017, the company achieved a revenue of 526million yuan for military products, a steady increase of 11% year-on-year. The use proportion of carbon fiber composites is one of the important standards to measure the advanced degree of military aircraft. The use proportion of carbon fiber materials of F35 and F22, the world's major fighter planes, is about 20%, the use rate of carbon fiber of advanced military helicopters is more than 40%, and the use rate of unmanned aerial vehicles is more than 90%. At present, the proportion of carbon fiber used in China's military aviation industry is only 3%-5%, which still has great room for improvement compared with the world average level. The utilization rate of carbon fiber in Chinese military aircraft has shown an upward trend. The subsequent batches of J-10 models have used carbon fiber composites in batches in the radome, front fuselage, auxiliary flaps, vertical tail and other secondary load-bearing structures. J-11B, j-11bs and L-15 all use carbon fiber vertical tail components. In the future, the proportion of carbon fiber materials used in China's aviation industry will continue to rise

the continuous volume of third-generation fighters and military armed helicopters will provide a strong guarantee for the company's existing carbon fiber material performance. The company's new product T800 has been selected and verified by many military aircraft (including UAVs and new generation aircraft). At present, the t800h project has completed the leading process review and the digital workshop review, has the capacity of mass production, has entered the stage of engineering application verification, and the products have been used in small batches on some military helicopters. In the future, with the batch installation of new models, new carbon fiber products will also bring huge increments to the company's performance

at present, China's military aircraft is in the critical stage of upgrading. In the coming years, China's main combat aircraft will undergo the evolution process of gradual transition from the third-generation aircraft to the fourth generation aircraft, and the number of existing third-generation aircraft will not be significantly reduced in a short time. It is estimated that in the next 20 years, China's demand for third-generation aircraft will be about 1000; The demand of the fourth generation fighter is about 500; The demand for large transport aircraft and special operations aircraft is about 400; The demand for military helicopters is about 2000. Assume that the average proportion of carbon fiber of the third generation and the third generation and a half fighters is 10%; The use proportion of the fourth generation machine is about 20%; The proportion of large military aircraft is about 15%; The proportion of helicopters is about 40%; The use proportion of training aircraft is about 10%. In the next 10 years, the total consumption of carbon fiber for new military aircraft in China is about 3460 tons. If estimated at the unit price of 4000 yuan/kg, the market space of military carbon fiber in China is about 13.84 billion yuan

wind power carbon beam products are rapidly in large quantities, and the guarantee of performance upgrading continues to grow.

at present, the trend of large-scale wind power blades is becoming more and more obvious. Traditional material blades can no longer meet the performance requirements of large-scale wind turbines. Wind power blades with a length of more than 42 meters must adopt carbon fiber or carbon glass hybrid fiber to ensure blade strength. Carbon fiber blades have become the future development direction of large-scale wind power. Wind power carbon beam business is a cooperation project between the company and Vestas wind technology, a global wind power giant. At present, it has become the first supplier of Vestas wind power carbon beam. The 24K tow project of the company has achieved small batch production, and its product performance is equivalent to that of foreign products of the same level, and has become a qualified supplier of wind power carbon beam project through verification. In 2017, the number of wind power carbon beams developed and produced by the company for Vestas increased rapidly, with a total annual sales of 261 million yuan, a substantial year-on-year increase of 697.86%. The wind power industry has broad prospects. Carbon fiber blades are the main development direction of large-scale wind power. Vestas has a huge demand for carbon beam products. In addition, the performance of the company's wind power carbon beam products is constantly upgraded. In the future, the company's wind power products are expected to continue to promote the rapid growth of the company's civil products business

the fund-raising projects are progressing smoothly, expanding production capacity to ensure industrial status

in 2017, the construction of the company's fund-raising projects was carried out in an orderly manner. The industrialization project of military civilian integration high-performance carbon fiber efficient preparation technology has begun to carry out plant reconstruction, production line equipment layout, production line related equipment and other aspects of design work, and some purchased equipment has entered the stage of technical exchange, research and evaluation; The high-strength and high model carbon fiber industrialization project has completed the installation, commissioning and trial production of the carbonization production line, and the raw silk line and supporting facilities are under construction; The advanced composite material R & D center project has also completed the overall scheme design and construction drawing review of the project. The new t700s/t800s of the raised investment project has verified the technological capacity of low-cost carbon fiber process through the trial production of the test line. The performance indicators of the product are equivalent to the international level of products at the same level, and the production efficiency has been significantly improved

the company's new 20 ton high-strength and high modulus product line and two 1000 ton production lines will achieve 30% capacity in 2019 and reach full capacity in 2020. The three new production lines of the raised investment project will provide stable production capacity support for the future development of military and civilian products, and ensure that the company continues to maintain its leading position in the industry

profit forecast and investment rating: high performance growth is expected, and the purchase rating is maintained.

in the future, the company will form a complete industrial chain from carbon fiber, fabric, resin, high-performance prepreg materials to composite parts, components and finished products supported by high-end equipment design and manufacturing technology, and achieve a large increase in production capacity and sales within three years on the basis of the existing production and sales scale, Further consolidate the leading position of the company in the domestic carbon fiber industry and lay the foundation for the rapid development in the next five to ten years. Driven by the rapid growth of military products business and the fact that the shape is also one of the most important characteristics of wedge-shaped components, civil products are vigorously entering emerging markets, the company's performance will grow rapidly in the future and is highly expected. We conservatively predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2018 to 2020 will be 330 million yuan, 466 million yuan and 668 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 39.06%, 41.31% and 43.42% respectively. The corresponding EPS from 18 to 20 years will be 0.90 yuan, 1.27 yuan and 1.82 yuan respectively, corresponding to 51, 36 and 25 times the current share price PE respectively

since the company has obtained a military contract with a total amount of 742 million yuan at the beginning of 2018, which provides a strong support for the company's annual performance, and the company's T700 and T800 products continue to make substantial progress, and T800 products have been used in small batches, the company's military performance can grow rapidly in the future; The civil products business benefited from the development of wind power, and wind power products such as carbon beam are expected to continue to promote the stable growth of performance. We are strongly optimistic about the future development prospects of the company and maintain the buy rating