Strong rise of the hottest crude oil drives Tianji

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The strong rise of crude oil led to the rebound of Tianjiao

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K-line chart of Shanghai Tianjiao 0809 contract

K-line chart of Shanghai Tianjiao 0809 contract. (source: Southwest futures)

tocom rubber continuous monthly K-line chart

tocom rubber continuous monthly K-line chart. (source: Southwest futures)

this week, Shanghai Jiao fell first and then rose. In the first four trading days, Shanghai Jiao fell violently, breaking through the 10-day and 20-day moving average support. On Wednesday and Thursday, it has been sideways finishing near the low of 26500 this week, and the trading volume and positions have decreased. On Friday, affected by the rebound of crude oil and Japanese rubber, and driven by the replenishment of Shanghai Rubber forward contract, the size of the sample used in Shanghai, although the main force of small rubber quickly replenished the difference between the monthly price and the spot price, touched the daily limit and closed at 27790

this Sunday, the rubber market lacked guidance and passively followed the trend of crude oil. In the first four trading days of this week, under the drag of the sharp drop in crude oil, the Japanese gum quickly fell to around 330 yen. However, on Friday, the strong rise in crude oil led the Japanese gum to rebound sharply to above 345 yen. From the position of Japanese rubber this Sunday, the long position of Mitsubishi futures company, the main long position of Japanese rubber this week, has been reduced to less than 10000 hands for the first time this year. There are signs of high position reduction, which should be paid attention to

basically, this week, the customs preliminarily showed that China imported 110000 tons of natural rubber in June, and the domestic demand for natural rubber is still strong. In terms of inventory, this week, the inventory of Shanghai Rubber increased by 3435 tons to replace 50% of the packaging materials, and the inventory reached 22395 tons. In terms of the increase of warehouses, it is mainly due to the increase of the two main rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan. With the deepening of rubber cutting, the pressure on spot began to appear. However, supported by the news of domestic Tianjiao production reduction this year, the spot price was still strong, and the transaction price of agricultural reclamation this week remained at a high level

crude oil rebounded rapidly after the G8 meeting this week. Each city independently formulated policies to promote innovation, and the price directly reached $150. Under such a strong situation of crude oil, the performance of Japanese rubber and international spot was slightly weak. At present, the natural rubber market is supported by the rise of crude oil, but at the same time, due to the recovery of rubber tapping in the production area and the increase of new rubber supply on the market, natural rubber may also encounter strong resistance when rising. Therefore, when the long and short messages are intertwined, pay close attention to the trend of Tianjiao, and temporarily focus on wait-and-see

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